Weekly and Monthly National Fire Risk Level

The week of 29 Jul-05 Aug, Canada is experiencing elevated wildland fire risk due to a prolonged period of hot and dry weather across western Canada and the NT.

Natural Resources Canada (NRCan) issued its severity anomaly forecast on 01 Aug (top right map), highlighting areas where wildland fire severity for the month is expected to deviate from historical averages. The Aug forecast indicates well-above-average wildland fire severity over a large area of western Canada, including most of BC and AB, southern NT, and central/northern MB and SK.

Wildland fire Areas of Priority Concern

Warm and mostly dry conditions prevail across Canada on 04 Aug, with scattered showers and thunderstorms in western Canada while Atlantic Canada remains dry.

• BC: Seasonal temperatures; chance of showers and thunderstorms in the Interior and northeast.
• AB: Showers and thunderstorms in western and central sections; mostly dry in the northwest.
• NT: Seasonal temperatures with a chance of thunderstorms in southern and central sections.
• SK: Temperatures begin to moderate; chance of thunderstorms in western sections.
• MB: Mostly warm and dry conditions.
• ON: Warm temperatures with a chance of thunderstorms in northwestern ON.
• Atlantic Canada: Warm temperatures and dry conditions persist over the region. Gusty winds are forecast for the Avalon Peninsula of NL.

Forward-Looking Weather Outlook

Short-term/Long-range Western Canada (05-07 Aug / 08-09 Aug):

• Mostly seasonal temperatures with an increased chance of showers, though overall rainfall amounts will be limited. In the long-range, warm and mostly dry conditions are expected.

Short-term/Long-range Eastern Canada (05-07 Aug / 08–09 Aug):

• Near-normal temperatures with chance of showers and thunderstorms in northern ON. The long-range forecast is similar. In Atlantic Canada, conditions will be warm and mostly dry over the coming period.

Summary of National Risk and Weather Analysis

• Very high to extreme fire danger is forecast for 04 Aug across Vancouver Island, the South Coast, and the BC Interior. Extreme fire danger is also forecast in parts of Atlantic Canada, due to ongoing dry conditions and warm temperatures.
• Wildfire smoke from SK and MB continues to drift eastward, impacting ON, QC, and Atlantic Canada.
• Lightning risk remains elevated across BC, AB, and southern NT, with scattered thunderstorms capable of new fire ignitions.