• Wildland fire activity continues to increase at a steady rate, primarily in Western Canada. In this area, warmer temperatures, below average precipitation, and below average snowpack melt has resulted in higher than usual Fire Danger Risk for this time of year.
• The area of focus is presently southeast MB and western ON. Dry conditions and higher than seasonal temperatures have enabled the existing situation, whereby multiple wildland fires are affecting remote communities.
• As of 14 May, two significant wildland fires in Manitoba—EA0062 Wendigo Beach/Lac du Bonnet and EA0061 Bird River/RM of Alexander—remain out of control. Both fires have damaged power lines and poles, causing outages for nearby community members. For the safety of firefighters and crews, Manitoba Hydro has disconnected power to the affected area. RCMP have confirmed the loss of two lives related to EA0062 Lac du Bonnet wildland fire.
• MB is expected to get some relief with low to moderate precipitation (5-10mm) is anticipated in southern MB and western ON over the next 24 hours, which should assist ongoing firefighting efforts.
• Evacuation is ongoing in the community of Wabaseemoong FN (KEN020) in ON, where the fire is just 2 km away and poses a risk to the FN. Currently, 900 members have been evacuated, while approximately 28 members remain in the community along with 31 essential workers.
• Air quality warnings have been issued in southeast MB due to smoke, as well as air quality statements for northeast ON for the same.
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• Several Flood Warnings and Watches are in effect for ON, QC, and NB, with additional flood advisories in effect in YT, and NT.
• As of May 14, PS RO ON will deescalate to Level 1, as the repatriation of communities along the James Bay Coast is either underway or has been completed.
• The Ottawa River Regulation Planning Board reports, spring runoff in the northern part of the basin remains high but is receding. Water levels are close to or exceeding minor flood levels in all locations along the main stem of the Ottawa River. Some elevated water levels along the lower Ottawa from Pembroke to Hawkesbury.
• As of 14 May, Water levels across most of YT are rising; Ice break-up on the Porcupine River at Old Crow is currently forecast to begin on 23 May. Vuntut Gwitchin FN (VGFN) are undertaking preparedness levels and coordinating Critical Infrastructure protection with YT Emergency Management Office and partners.
• ISC reported that four FN communities are affected by flooding events in ON.

Weather and Risks

• Steady rain, with embedded heavier showers/thunderstorms is forecast for eastern SK/western MB resulting in 50-80 mm of precipitation. Meanwhile scattered showers across southern MB and NW ON are expected to become widespread with thunderstorms (possibly severe) developing Thursday afternoon & evening.
• Expect winds from the SE across NW ON and from the E and NE across southern MB resulting in widespread smoky conditions across southern/central MB and southwestern NW ON. 
• Cooler temperatures settle in across the region Friday as the weather system moves away to the SE. Expect daytime highs in the single digits (nearly 30 degrees C cooler compared to earlier in the week).
• The risk is considered high for the community of Wabaseemoong FN (KEN020) in ON. While some precipitation is expected 15 May, and multiple crews are conducting firefighting efforts, the fire is only 2km from the community and still out of control.